Art Kleiner
c/o Booz & Company ¥ 101 Park Ave 20FL NY
NY 10178 ¥ 212-551-6425 voice
art.kleiner@booz.com email
My home page: http://www.artkleiner.com
This is an in-depth course, with much of the "work" done during class time, a shared weblog on which much of our deliberation will be recorded, three short written assignments, and one presentation to the general public.
All class sessions meet from 9:30 AM-12 noon on Friday unless agreed otherwise.
Friday, Sept 11: Intros & definition of our purpose.
Friday, Sept 18: First cut on Driving Forces; overview of the first two assignments.
Friday, Sept 25:. Driving forces. Introduction to research
paper assignment.
Due:Assignment 1 (Driving force from news
reports).
Friday, Oct 2:. Driving forces.
Due: Research proposal.
Scheduled between Oct 2 and Oct 16: Research
paper consultations.
Friday, Oct 9: Driving forces. Research paper reports.
Friday, Oct 16: Research paper reports.
Friday, Oct 23: Research paper reports.
Friday, Oct 30: Scenario distillation. Division into working groups.
Friday, Nov 6: Due: Assignment 2 (Written research papers.) Scenarios. In-depth sessions with working groups.
Friday, Nov 20: Scenarios. In-depth sessions with working groups.
Friday, Nov 27: Thanksgiving. No class.
Friday, Dec 4: Scenarios. In-depth sessions with working groups. Indicators.
Friday, Dec 11: Scenarios.
Friday, Dec 18: Due: Assignment 3 (Strategic decision
paper.) Last day of class
To be scheduled finals week:
Final presentation and post-presentation meeting
A driving force is a trend or factor, operating in the world today, which will influence the way the future evolves over the next 5-15 years.
1) Identify a Predetermined Element: Something that, based on your reading and thinking, is certain to happen in a predictable way (or at least you would be willing to argue that it is). 1-2 paragraphs.
2) Identify a Critical Uncertainty: Some trend or chain of events whose outcome is uncertain, but no matter what happens, it will be highly significant to the future we care about. 1-2 paragraphs.
Be prepared to talk about these in class. They can come from the news, from the web, or from your own reading.
No more than 1200 words: A critical driving force, studied with cogency and depth and some small amount of research. The key point of this assignment: Can you digest and assimilate knowledge to get to the "heart of the matter" for the rest of us?
A brief letter describing one decision that you (or someone else) is about to make and how it would be robust in all the scenarios we have considered.
Guests: From time to time guests may join the class and take part in our scenario work. They will make brief presentations, but the point is to get them involved in participating with us.
Books: The Art of the Long View, by Peter Schwartz. Everyone in the course should have this book. We will follow the method described in this book.
The Age of Heretics, by Art Kleiner. Tells the story of scenario planning.
Future Savvy, by Adam Gordon. Tips for the aspiring scenario practitioner.
Other readings will be circulated, by me or others, as they are needed. As we get into our work, you may stumble across articles which would educate everyone. I will photocopy and distribute these, but please be sparing of our time. The point of the course is to judge and digest a huge amount of material, to reach a meaningful result, and we must always guard against overload.
Grades: Anyone who does all the work gets an A. Students should have no incentive to come up with answers that please me or anyone else. Instead, the goal is to expand and develop your thinking (and the thinking of the rest of us).
Email: During the first day of class, we will circulate a sheet with each others' email addresses. We will use email extensively, though not to substitute for any class discussion.
My email address is art.kleiner@booz.com.
Every student must have email access.
Web use/weblog: All students will be given access to the class weblog; All assignments get posted there as new entries.
In addition, the weblog will be used to compile our ongoing record of Driving Forces.
Class give and take: Remember to listen as much as to talk. Conversational give-and-take dominates the room, but please do not interrupt others. Try to follow the understanding that we are developing as a whole...